Tag Archives: oil

Oil Price Back to Fundamentals

As I stated in my previous post on oil and gasoline, we are on track to the return to normal as speculators unwind their positions. China has stopped stockpiling commodities and the Oil super tankers are all full. When oil returns to the trading range of $40 to $50 per barrel ( in July I suspect) then gasoline will be back to where the major US and european Oil companies want it. Remember that a missle does not hit its target in a direct line. It gets out of its trajectory and wiggles back and forth until it hits the target. That’s what oil prices have been doing.

July ’09 will be the bottom of the recession and we will lay on the bottom as a submarine waiting for other economic depth charges try to blow us out of the water. These charges will be each closing of a automobile plant and downstream parts producers, China reduced buying, and 11% unemployment.

Only Ronald Reagan faced these unemployment and poor economic conditions and it took Bill Clinton to bring us out of the Great Recession of Ronald Reagan.

Only Christmas 2009 will give us any real hope. In March we will see unemployment reverse and we will start adding jobs as the Democrats economic stimulus plan take hold.

$2 Gasoline National Average before Inauguration Day

As I informed you 3 weeks ago the gasoline prices are on their way to $2.00 a gallon national average before Obama takes office in January.  November 4 will put us at $3.00/gallon or a little better as a national average. Multinational oil companies have a target of $2.00/ gallon by Jan 2009 inauguration day. As I mentioned earlier they have made trillions and their cash coffers are full.  The only way to keep us hooked is to make gas “cheap” again (in relative terms) which they hope will make us forget about Wind, Solar. and alternative fuels. It worked in the mid 80’s, when government abandoned research in wind, solar, and alternative fuels after asserting the US was going for independence from foreign oil, because gas was below $.89 a gallon. At that time oil companies took their profits and invested in large land holdings, because home and land prices had plummeted . . . . ..sound familiar. Between 1997 and 2006 they sold most of their land holdings for substantial profits . .and the cycle starts again.

My former colleagues in the oil industry assure me the plan is still in tact.  There will be ups and downs on the way, but that’s the only way to not be so obvious in price control through the futures market.

Since a lot of money is made on heating oil in the winter, they plan on making up any “loss” by charging more for heating oil. Listen to the news. They are already setting the northern states up by “leaking” news that home heating prices may be up 15-20% this winter, even though crude oil prices will be substantially lower than last winter.

Big oil got scared when the Democrats in Congress stopped purchasing oil for the Strategic Reserve and that is when the speculators made their last hurrah seeing oil spike one last time before starting the recent decline. The halting of purchases has had the accumulative affect of adding 2 days of inventory to the United States gasoline reserves. By January 1, it will add 4 days of inventory to the national gasoline reserves. At that time we will start to purchase for our national oil reserves again.

The public outcry for alternative sources of energy must be stopped to preserve the U.S. dependency on oil, which is the plan of Big oil. Gasoline could be manipulated to $1.49 to force out independents and keep us dependent by making alternative sources “too expensive”.